Michael McDonald, a professor of political science at the University of Florida and the head of the U.S. Elections Project said he expects voter turnout to be lower than 2020.

McDonald said he is forecasting a 2024 voting-eligible population turnout rate of 64.7%, lower than 2020’s 66.4% rate, but higher than 2016’s 60.1%. He noted that 2020 saw the highest turnout rate since 1900.

McDonald said 2024 will have fewer mail ballots cast, expecting 48 million to be cast compared to 65.6 million cast in 2020, mainly due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

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