“The political environment suggests the election is Trump’s and Republicans’ to lose,” Gallup said. “Nearly every indicator of the election context is favorable to the Republican Party, and those that aren’t are essentially tied rather than showing a Democratic advantage.”

Party identification has traditionally been a strong indicator in predicting election outcomes, Gallup said, and this year, 48% say they are, or lean, Republican, versus 45% who are, or lean, Democrat — a GOP advantage not seen in decades.

Gallup said, “Republicans previously have not had an outright advantage in party affiliation during the third quarter of a presidential election year, and they have rarely outnumbered Democrats in election and non-election years over the past three decades.”

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